AEGIS ETF Twin Strategy

Regime-Aware Multi-Asset Overlay Engine — 2026-02-26
Macro Leads
MACRO_LEADS
Elevated macro risk — defensive positioning, reduced exposure
Transition
TRANSITION
Mixed signals — moderate exposure with balanced allocation
Fiedler Leads
FIEDLER_LEADS
Structural strength — full exposure, risk-on positioning
0.60
Regime Multiplier (mt)
Scales base allocation — 0.3 (defensive) to 1.0 (full exposure)
ELEVATED
Hedge Level (SSI-Driven)
Zero-cost tilt — shifts allocation toward safety or risk
0.99
P(Macro) — Markov Regime
Probability of macro-driven state (>0.80 = MACRO_LEADS)
mt v2 Signal Decomposition
0.600
Base
P(macro)=0.99
×
1.000
SSI Adj
structural stress
×
1.000
VIX Adj
volatility ramp
×
1.000
DFI Vel
flow velocity
=
0.600
mt
clipped [0.30, 1.00]

AEGIS CORE

Static Structural Allocation — Sharpe 1.949 • Return 14.91% • MaxDD -7.03%
USMV
40.0%
SHV
30.0%
SPY
20.0%
GLD
10.0%

AEGIS HORIZON

Risk-Managed Overlay — Sharpe 2.142 • Return 12.23% • MaxDD -4.22%
CASH
40.0%
USMV
24.0%
SHV
21.0%
SPY
7.0%
GLD
6.0%
TLT
2.0%

Model Blend Portfolios

TickerAggressive (80C/20H)Balanced (50C/50H)Conservative (30C/70H)
CASH8.0%20.0%28.0%
GLD9.2%8.0%7.2%
SHV28.2%25.5%23.7%
SPY17.4%13.5%10.9%
TLT0.4%1.0%1.4%
USMV36.8%32.0%28.8%

Performance Comparison

Backtest metrics: 2024-02-26 → 2026-02-26 • CORE–HORIZON daily correlation: 0.9633
상품설명 / Strategy Profiles
AEGIS CORE

A static, rules-based multi-asset portfolio held at fixed weights across equities, bonds, and real assets. No tactical adjustments are made — it serves as the structural baseline, designed for long-term capital preservation with broad diversification.

주식·채권·실물자산에 고정 비중으로 투자하는 정적 멀티에셋 포트폴리오입니다. 전술적 조정 없이 장기 자본 보존과 광범위한 분산을 목표로 하는 구조적 기준 전략입니다.

AEGIS HORIZON

A regime-aware overlay that dynamically scales equity exposure (mt: 30–100%) using macro regime signals, structural stress indicators, and VIX dynamics. During stress regimes, the portfolio rotates toward defensive instruments and cash; during calm regimes, full exposure is restored.

거시 레짐 신호, 구조적 스트레스 지표, VIX 동학을 결합해 주식 익스포저(mt: 30–100%)를 동적으로 조절하는 오버레이 전략입니다. 스트레스 국면에서는 방어 자산·현금으로 전환하고, 안정 국면에서는 익스포저를 완전히 복원합니다.

Balanced (50/50)

A blended portfolio allocating equally to AEGIS CORE and AEGIS HORIZON. It combines structural diversification with partial regime-adaptive downside protection — suitable for investors seeking moderate risk management without fully committing to an active overlay.

AEGIS CORE와 AEGIS HORIZON을 동일 비중으로 결합한 혼합 포트폴리오입니다. 구조적 분산과 부분적 레짐 적응형 하방 보호를 동시에 제공하며, 완전한 액티브 오버레이 없이 중간 수준의 리스크 관리를 선호하는 투자자에게 적합합니다.

SPY B&H

Passive buy-and-hold of the S&P 500 ETF. Included as a market benchmark to contextualize risk-adjusted returns — illustrating the drawdown and volatility cost of unhedged U.S. large-cap equity exposure over the same period.

S&P 500 ETF의 패시브 매수 후 보유 전략으로 시장 벤치마크입니다. 동일 기간 헤지되지 않은 미국 대형주 익스포저의 낙폭과 변동성 비용을 비교하기 위한 기준선으로 포함됩니다.

StrategySharpeReturnVolatilityMaxDDCalmarTotal
AEGIS CORE 1.94914.91%7.65% -7.03%2.11931.97%
AEGIS HORIZON 2.14212.23%5.71% -4.22%2.925.9%
Balanced (50/50) 2.0513.57%6.62% -5.54%2.44928.92%
SPY B&H 1.11318.19%16.34% -18.76%0.9739.6%
In addition to fixed-parameter backtests, we conducted rolling walk-forward validation to simulate real-time adaptive deployment. Results confirm stability across recalibration windows. 고정 파라미터 백테스트 외에도, 실시간 적응형 배포를 시뮬레이션하기 위해 롤링 워크포워드 검증을 수행했습니다. 재보정 구간 전반에 걸쳐 안정성이 확인되었습니다.

Cumulative Returns: CORE vs HORIZON vs Blends

Growth of $1 invested. CORE = static multi-asset, HORIZON = regime overlay with dynamic mt scaling and hedge tilts.

Drawdown Comparison

HORIZON consistently shows shallower drawdowns due to regime-driven cash allocation during stress periods.

Regime Multiplier (mt) Timeline

mt = 0.6 in MACRO_LEADS (40% cash), 0.8 in TRANSITION (20% cash), 1.0 in FIEDLER_LEADS (full exposure). VIX overlay can push to 0.54.
AEGIS ETF Twin Strategy — Backtest results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future performance.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All returns shown before transaction costs unless noted.